DOES NEW RESEARCH PROVE THE BIBLICAL EXODUS?
A Scholarly–Historical Overview

If you take a moment to read our research page on the life of Joseph and watch the recommended documentary Patterns of Evidence: The Exodus, you’ll be fully caught up to where we are now. Our next step is to trace the Bible Timeline through the life of Moses.

For generations, the Church traditionally believed that the Exodus occurred during the reign of the famous Pharaoh Ramses. It makes for dramatic cinema, but is it historically accurate? Increasingly, the answer appears to be no.

The traditional assumption arises from Exodus 1:11, which states that the Hebrews built the store city of “Ramses.” Archaeologists, however, date the city of Pi-Ramses to the 13th century BC, where no Semitic population existed during that period. Based on this, many concluded that the Exodus narrative—while useful for preaching—lacked historical foundation.

That conclusion held for years… until the rediscovery of Avaris.

Avaris: The Lost City Beneath Pi-Ramses
When the Exodus narrative was transmitted over centuries, the once-prominent city of Avaris had disappeared from cultural memory. It was destroyed, rebuilt, renamed, and eventually buried beneath the later city of Ramses. The city known to early Israelites had vanished from the map.

Yet archaeology now reveals that Avaris, located in the land of Goshen, was a sprawling city of 30,000 inhabitants and was home to a massive Semitic population. Beneath the ruins of Pi-Ramses lie the remains of an older cultural horizon that aligns precisely with the biblical account.
This includes unmistakable signs of shepherding—highly unusual in Egypt—which fits Jacob’s family:

 
“Thy servants have been keepers of cattle… for every shepherd is an abomination unto the Egyptians.”
— Genesis 46:33–34

Archaeologist Manfred Bietak confirmed pastoral structures and Semitic settlement throughout Avaris—something found nowhere in Pi-Ramses but abundant in the earlier Middle Kingdom layers.

Joseph at Avaris: Archaeology and the AM Timeline Converge

According to the AM chronology used by FullBibleTimeline.com:

• Joseph born: 2199 AM

• Sold into slavery at 17: 2216 AM

• Stands before Pharaoh at 30: 2229 AM (≈ 1771 BC)

• Jacob enters Egypt: 2238 AM (≈ 1762 BC)

• Joseph’s Pharaoh dies: 2270 AM

• Joseph dies at 110: 2309 AM (≈ 1691 BC)

• Hyksos rise to power: 2309 AM
   

These dates align strikingly with the archaeology of Avaris, which shows intense Semitic presence throughout this exact period.

Excavations have revealed:

• A large Semitic-style palace built on twelve pillars

• A cluster of twelve tombs, consistent with a patriarchal clan

• A pyramid-shaped tomb containing a statue of an Asiatic ruler with:

  • Yellowish skin (Egyptian depiction of Semites)

  • Red hair

  • A multicolored garment

  • A foreign throw-stick (symbol of authority)

• No human remains—matching Exodus 13:19, where Moses carries Joseph’s bones to Canaan
   

Later layers at Avaris reveal:

• Mass graves

• Malnutrition indicators

• A spike in infant mortality

• Fewer adult male skeletons
   

Exactly what one expects during the oppressive labor conditions described in Exodus 1.

The Brooklyn Papyrus, a Middle Kingdom household register, lists nearly 100 Semitic slave names—evidence of Hebrew or Hebrew-related populations in Egypt long before scholars place them in the 13th century.

A Crucial Insight: The 144-Year Gap
Between Joseph’s death (2309 AM) and the Exodus (2453 AM) lies a crucial 144-year interval.

This century-and-a-half gap explains:

• How Joseph’s memory faded

• Why a “new king arose who knew not Joseph”

• How Semitic rival groups gained power

• How Hebrews grew into a large population

• How privilege turned into oppression
   

It is long enough for Joseph’s influence to disappear,
long enough for the Hyksos to rise and fall,
and long enough for the Hebrews to become both numerous and vulnerable—exactly as recorded in Exodus 1.

The Hyksos and the Changing Fate of Israel
The Hyksos rise was not a foreign military invasion, as once thought. Archaeology shows it was the political ascent of Semitic populations already living in the Delta—Canaanite and Amorite groups who had been migrating into Egypt since Joseph’s time.
Manetho called them “Hyksos” (from hekau khaswet), meaning:
 
“Rulers of foreign lands.”

Their emergence immediately after Joseph’s death explains the dramatic shift described in Exodus:

• Joseph dies

• His Pharaoh dies

• Rival Semitic elites rise

• Hebrews lose protection
   

This is how “a new king arose who did not know Joseph” becomes historically intelligible.

It was not simply forgetfulness—it was a regime change.

When native Egyptians eventually expelled the Hyksos, the Hebrews were already reduced to a laboring class. The restored Egyptian dynasty intensified the oppression.
Moses in the World of Upheaval

According to the AM chronology:

• Moses born: 2373 AM (1627 BC)

• Born into growing oppression

• Raised as a prince for 40 years

• Fled Egypt (age 40) around 2413 AM

• Lived as a shepherd for 40 years

• Returned to Egypt (age 80)

• Led the Exodus: 2453 AM (1547 BC)
   

This places Moses directly within the political turbulence of the Hyksos expulsion and the rise of the powerful 18th Dynasty.

Egyptian Literary Memory of Catastrophe
The Ipuwer Papyrus, although written later, preserves striking echoes of national disaster:

• “The river is blood.”

• Disorder throughout the land

• Death widespread

• Servants flee, the rich become poor
   

The name Ipuwer is attested between 1850–1450 BC, making it entirely plausible that this document reflects memories from the centuries surrounding the Exodus.

Josephus and the Semitic Exodus
Josephus, quoting Manetho, preserves an Egyptian memory of the expulsion of a large Semitic population. While his attempt to equate this event directly with the biblical Exodus is imprecise, the broad contours align:

• A powerful Semitic community departs Egypt

• Egypt reasserts native rule

• The political order is transformed
   

This aligns well with the AM date of 1547 BC for the Exodus.

Conclusion
When archaeology, biblical chronology, Egyptian history, and Near Eastern documents are placed side by side, a clear pattern emerges:

• The Hebrews were present in Egypt centuries earlier than the traditional model assumes.

• Avaris—not Pi-Ramses—was their city.

• Joseph’s rise fits the Middle Kingdom precisely.

• The Hyksos period explains the sudden oppression.

• Egyptian records preserve cultural memories of disaster.

• The biblical date for the Exodus aligns with the fall of Hyksos power and the rise of the 18th Dynasty.

• The 144-year gap between Joseph and Moses explains the transition from privilege to slavery with remarkable coherence.
   

Taken together, new research strongly supports the historicity of the biblical Exodus.
 
1. How many generations fit into 215 years?
If people are living long (often to ~100) and marrying relatively young, a generation length of ~23–25 years is very reasonable.
 
Let’s take 24 years as a working average:

• 215 years ÷ 24 years/generation ≈ 9 generations
   

So we’re looking at roughly 8–9 generations from Jacob entering Egypt to the Exodus.
 
2. Turn “5–6 children per couple” into a growth factor
Think in terms of couples.

• Each couple has 6 surviving children

• Roughly half are male, half female → about 3 new couples per existing couple

So the population of couples grows by a factor of about 3× per generation.
 
The same logic with 5 surviving children gives about 2.5 new couples per couple (5 ÷ 2 = 2.5).
So:

• 5 kids per couple → growth factor ≈ 2.5 per generation

• 6 kids per couple → growth factor ≈ 3 per generation
   

We’ll use those.
 
3. Start from 70 and apply the multiplication
We start with 70 people (35 couples).
 
Scenario A – 6 surviving children per couple (factor 3×)
 
Each generation, the number of people roughly triples:

• Gen 0: 70

• Gen 1: 70 × 3 = 210

• Gen 2: 210 × 3 = 630

• Gen 3: 630 × 3 = 1,890

• Gen 4: 1,890 × 3 = 5,670

• Gen 5: 5,670 × 3 = 17,010

• Gen 6: 17,010 × 3 = 51,030

• Gen 7: 51,030 × 3 = 153,090

• Gen 8: 153,090 × 3 = 459,270

• Gen 9: 459,270 × 3 = 1,377,810
   

So with:

• ~9 generations (215 years at 24 yrs/gen)

• ~6 surviving children per couple
   

You’re in the range of ~450,000 to over 1.3 million people, depending on whether you stop at 8 or 9 full generations.
 
Even if real-world factors slow that a bit, you are very comfortably in the several-hundred-thousand bracket.
 
Scenario B – 5.5 surviving children per couple (factor 2.75×)
 
Let’s pick a slightly more conservative number: 5.5 surviving children per couple, giving about 2.75× growth per generation.
 
Over 8–9 generations:

• Population ≈ 70 × (2.75⁸) → about 230,000

• Population ≈ 70 × (2.75⁹) → about 630,000
   

So with:

• 5.5 kids per couple

• 8–9 generations

you are still in the ballpark of a few hundred thousand to over half a million Hebrews.
 
4. What this shows for our thesis
Using absolutely reasonable assumptions:

• 70 starting people

• 215 years

• 5–6 surviving children per couple

• generation length ~23–25 years

you very naturally reach:
 

A Hebrew population in the several-hundred-thousand range by the time of the Exodus.
 
This tracks beautifully with:

• Pharaoh fearing that “the people of the children of Israel are more and mightier than we” (Exod 1:9)

• A large slave labor force used on building projects

• A massive, visibly threatening population leaving Egypt
   

So the math really does dovetail with the biblical picture of a very large, intimidating Hebrew population by the time of Moses.


M. Joseph Hutzler, Eschatologist
www.FullBibleTimeline.com